Insight from Pinyon Transportation

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Commentary

Emerging transportation modes will require more than new tech

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There was an interesting article in yesterday’s WSJ about the meteoric rise of electric bikes (e-bikes) in China. A thread running throughout, particularly in the expert and on-the-ground commentary, was that these e-bikes (some of which can reach 25 miles an hour but can be driven with no formal certification) are deadly hazards. Originally launched as a way – and a successful one at that – to combat emissions and offer an alternative transport option to the automobile, the e-bikes are now seen as a scourge. They been alternatively banned, allowed with modifications, restricted, and encouraged.

The second biggest complaint is that the e-bikes can reach significant speed, and when they do impact a bike, a pedestrian, or anyother object bigger than a breadbox, they can kill it. The biggest complaint, though, seems to be – as one interviewee noted – that e-bikers are  ”totally devoid of conscience and respect for the law,” and barrel through intersections with little concern for other traffic or people.

Technologies, particularly those that move us from point-a to point-b, can be enormously disruptive bumping up as they do against existing infrastructures, laws, and practices. However, as early work in our new, soon-to-be-announced research stream on mobility and the future demonstrates, even more important is a recognition on behalf of transportation planners that cultural change and educational initiatives have to be included in any rapid development plan. China’s on-going experience with e-bikes is a superb example of this. The issue is less the speed or size of the e-bikes, but the practices of their drivers – something that has to be addressed at the outset, and then nurtured.

Jet packs and the history of the future of transportation

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For many people of my generation, the future of transportation was to be the jet pack. This vision of ultimate freedom, zooming from place to place, without a single earth-bound care was incredibly compelling to those of us growing up in the 70s and 80s. Jet packs have yet to truly materialize (there are some, but it’s not what you’d call immediately viable technology). But the idea of a jet pack, a perennial favorite of America’s youth, grew out of a much stronger vibe of transportation futurism in the 1950s.

Of course, Disney – the masters of the imagination and presentation – offered their own perspective on what we should expect in the future. Take a couple of moments to watch this excerpt from a 1958 movie, and then read on.

Captured in those eight minutes is a pretty good overview of what has come to be (or is being worked on right now): electronic driver notification signage, radiant heat surfaces, radar to enhance visibility, in-dash telematics to provide safe speed warnings, proximity notices, and up-to-the minute traffic conditions, rear-view cameras, life-flight, and GPS. Add to this other prescient assertions, like the automobile would encourage urban decentralization, growing commuting distances, high speed lanes, and you’ve got an interesting view of the future.

Of course, Disney got a lot wrong, or, at least we’ve not caught up to the future they’re offering. For instance, instant roadway construction, massively pre-fabbed bridges, atomic tunneling, cantilevered skyways tacked onto mountains, automated driving, multi-modal vehicles, truck trains, cargo rockets, and more leisure time seem to have eluded us.

What’s interesting here is not what Disney got right or wrong, but rather the continuity in transportation concerns (and hopes) over half a century.

Humans are creatures of the moment, concerned with things that are here, now, and in front of us. But it’s useful to be reminded that despite the speed of change in so many aspects of our lives, we still share a common desire to make our lives better and easier. And to fly.