These days we’re used to seeing things move quickly: new products, new ways, each more extraordinary than before. We live in an age of anticipation. We anticipate the new; whether it frightens us or excites us, we anticipate change. In many ways this has made us all prognosticators, seers of tomorrow. But as a number [...]

In part 1 I touched briefly on some of the restrictions that, if we’re not careful, models can impose on our visions of the future. By focusing on known variables and extrapolating both the consequences of the interactions of those variables and the interactions themselves, models can lure the unsuspecting into a belief that these [...]