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	<title>Pinyon Partners LLC: Strategic foresight research &#38; consulting &#187; Transportation</title>
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		<title>Emerging transportation modes will require more than new tech</title>
		<link>http://www.pinyonpartners.com/2010/01/emerging-transportation-modes-will-require-more-than-new-tech/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pinyonpartners.com/2010/01/emerging-transportation-modes-will-require-more-than-new-tech/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2010 14:13:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Transportation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[e-bikes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mobility]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pinyonpartners.com/?p=324</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There was an interesting article in yesterday&#8217;s WSJ about the meteoric rise of electric bikes (e-bikes) in China. A thread running throughout, particularly in the expert and on-the-ground commentary, was that these e-bikes (some of which can reach 25 miles an hour but can be driven with no formal certification) are deadly hazards. Originally launched [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />There was an <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703657604575005140241751852.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_lifestyle">interesting article</a> in yesterday&#8217;s WSJ about the meteoric rise of electric bikes (e-bikes) in China. A thread running throughout, particularly in the expert and on-the-ground commentary, was that these e-bikes (some of which can reach 25 miles an hour but can be driven with no formal certification) are deadly hazards. Originally launched as a way &#8211; and a successful one at that &#8211; to combat emissions and offer an alternative transport option to the automobile, the e-bikes are now seen as a scourge. They been alternatively banned, allowed with modifications, restricted, and encouraged.</p>
<p>The second biggest complaint is that the e-bikes can reach significant speed, and when they do impact a bike, a pedestrian, or anyother object bigger than a breadbox, they can kill it. The biggest complaint, though, seems to be &#8211; as one interviewee noted &#8211; that e-bikers are  &#8221;totally devoid of conscience and respect for the law,&#8221; and barrel through intersections with little concern for other traffic or people.</p>
<p>Technologies, particularly those that move us from point-a to point-b, can be enormously disruptive bumping up as they do against existing infrastructures, laws, and practices. However, as early work in our new, soon-to-be-announced research stream on mobility and the future demonstrates, even more important is a recognition on behalf of transportation planners that cultural change and educational initiatives have to be included in any rapid development plan. China&#8217;s on-going experience with e-bikes is a superb example of this. The issue is less the speed or size of the e-bikes, but the practices of their drivers &#8211; something that has to be addressed at the outset, and then nurtured.</p>
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		<title>Jet packs and the history of the future of transportation</title>
		<link>http://www.pinyonpartners.com/2009/12/jet-packs-and-the-history-of-the-future-of-transportation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pinyonpartners.com/2009/12/jet-packs-and-the-history-of-the-future-of-transportation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:05:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Transportation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pinyonpartners.com/?p=318</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For many people of my generation, the future of transportation was to be the jet pack. This vision of ultimate freedom, zooming from place to place, without a single earth-bound care was incredibly compelling to those of us growing up in the 70s and 80s. Jet packs have yet to truly materialize (there are some, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p id="top" />For many people of my generation, the future of transportation was to be the jet pack. This vision of ultimate freedom, zooming from place to place, without a single earth-bound care was incredibly compelling to those of us growing up in the 70s and 80s. Jet packs have yet to truly materialize (there are some, but it&#8217;s not what you&#8217;d call immediately viable technology). But <em>the idea</em> of a jet pack, a perennial favorite of America&#8217;s youth, grew out of a much stronger vibe of transportation futurism in the 1950s.</p>
<p>Of course, Disney &#8211; the masters of the imagination and presentation &#8211; offered their own perspective on what we should expect in the future. Take a couple of moments to watch this excerpt from a 1958 movie, and then read on.</p>
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<p>Captured in those eight minutes is a pretty good overview of what has come to be (or is being worked on right now): electronic driver notification signage, radiant heat surfaces, radar to enhance visibility, in-dash telematics to provide safe speed warnings, proximity notices, and up-to-the minute traffic conditions, rear-view cameras, life-flight, and GPS. Add to this other prescient assertions, like the automobile would encourage urban decentralization, growing commuting distances, high speed lanes, and you&#8217;ve got an interesting view of the future.</p>
<p>Of course, Disney got a lot wrong, or, at least we&#8217;ve not caught up to the future they&#8217;re offering. For instance, instant roadway construction, massively pre-fabbed bridges, atomic tunneling, cantilevered skyways tacked onto mountains, automated driving, multi-modal vehicles, truck trains, cargo rockets, and more leisure time seem to have eluded us.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s interesting here is not what Disney got right or wrong, but rather the continuity in transportation concerns (and hopes) over half a century.</p>
<p>Humans are creatures of the moment, concerned with things that are here, now, and in front of us. But it&#8217;s useful to be reminded that despite the speed of change in so many aspects of our lives, we still share a common desire to make our lives better and easier. And to fly.</p>
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